主权债务风险跨国溢出研究——来自频域的新证据

本文从国家间主权债务风险溢出的持续期角度出发,采用基于广义方差分解谱表示的BK溢出指数方法,首次从频域视角对短期和长期下的主权债务风险跨国溢出效应进行研究。研究发现:第一,短期和长期下的主权债务风险跨国溢出效应均较为显著,并且时域下的总溢出主要由短期的风险溢出主导。第二,14个国家的短期和长期风险输出水平呈线性关系,但对于风险输入,不同类型国家出现分化并形成两个聚类,新兴市场国家的短期风险输入水平远高于长期,其具有较强的“短期脆弱性”。第三,风险输出国的自身风险越大,对他国的长期溢出水平越高,风险输入国的自身风险越大,接收他国的短期溢出水平越高,并且两两国家间的进出口规模、金融市场一体化水平和经济周期协同性与其长期风险溢出水平呈正相关关系,而与其短期风险溢出水平的关系并不显著。第四,短期和长期的主权债务风险溢出网络都呈现明显的区域聚集特征,并且各国在短期溢出网络中主要与同区域以及经济金融环境相似的国家连接,在长期溢出网络中则通过经贸关系将连接范围扩大至不同区域甚至经济金融环境差异较大的国家。     

Government accounting with Chinese characteristics and challenges

This paper explains the Chinese government's decision to adopt accrual accounting by referring to an ancient Chinese strategy of governing. It also provides a rationale for whole-of-government financial reports in China's current fiscal context. The nature of the existing government accounting system is described and the technical and implementation challenges in achieving the goals of the ambitious reform agenda are identified. The country's unique institutional structure makes it necessary to craft a system of government accounting and reporting with Chinese characteristics.     

Enhancing Statistics Education by Including Qualitative Research

In this paper, we propose to re‐examine the role of qualitative thinking in the early stages of learning statistics and, where relevant, integrate selected elements of qualitative research methods into statistics curricula. We believe that this can help to improve statistics education, deepen desired student understanding of the role of statistics in providing answers to real‐world problems and address recurring concerns about student motivation. The paper clarifies the logic underlying our proposal, examines existing connections between qualitative and quantitative research during instruction that often go unacknowledged and can be built upon, explores practical implementation issues and discusses advantages as well as limitations of the proposed approach.     

股票市场价格序列正态性检验——基于上海股票市场2007-2013年数据

本文从股票价格变动的随机游走理论入手,通过频数分布和序列相关检验给出了我国股票价格变动的特点,发现股票价格序列所具有的正态特征并不显著.文章最后指出我国股市的停板制度影响了我国股市的有效性水平.     

Do Newspaper Articles Predict Aggregate Stock Returns?

We analyze whether newspaper content can predict aggregate future stock returns. Our study is based on articles published in the Handelsblatt, a leading German financial newspaper, from July 1989 to March 2011. We summarize newspaper content in a systematic way by constructing word-count indices for a large number of words. Word-count indices are instantly available and potentially valuable financial indicators. Our main finding is that newspaper articles have provided information valuable for predicting future DAX returns in and out of sample. We find evidence that the predictive power of newspaper content has increased over time, particularly since 2000. Our results suggest that a cluster analysis approach increases the predictive power of newspaper articles substantially.     

What is happening to China's GDP statistics?

This paper argues that official Chinese statistics contain major exaggerations of real output growth beginning 1998. The standard data contain numerous inconsistencies. Chinese commentaries castigate widespread falsification at lower levels and question the autheticity of figures emanating from the central statistical authorities. The author speculates that cumulative GDP growth during 1997/2001 was no more one-third of official claims, and possibly much smaller.     

中国通货膨胀预期及其影响因素分析——基于混频无套利Nelson-Siegel利率期限结构扩展模型

综合国债市场的利率期限结构信息以及不同频率的宏观信息,本文构建混频无套利Nelson-Siegel利率期限结构扩展模型,在对不同期限债券进行一致性定价理论约束下,提取了中国通货膨胀预期的期限结构并对其进行影响因素分析。研究结果表明,本文模型提取的通胀预期期限丰富、结果稳健,具有较好的参考价值。通胀预期水平和变动响应主要受货币增长率、通胀率及全球食品价格变动等国内外相关宏观变量的影响,与国债收益率因子之间的关系不显著;国债收益率因子对中长期通胀预期的方差波动具有较强解释力,表明国债定价反映了未来通胀的不确定性。本文研究有助于充分利用我国宏观与金融市场信息条件,有效发现和锚定通胀预期,一方面,研究结果可为政策制定者和市场投资者提供科学的决策参考,另一方面,研究方法对丰富宏观金融领域的分析框架具有参考价值。     

后危机时代对中国营商环境的再认识——基于世界银行对中国2700家私营企业调研数据的实证分析

文章利用世界银行2012年对中国2700家私营企业的调研数据,从企业层面研究了经济危机后中国的营商环境。调研结果表明,中国企业在当前经济环境中所面临的问题主要表现为金融准入困难、人力资源受教育程度不高、非正规部门竞争以及税负高等。文章估计了上述问题对企业业绩的影响。研究结果表明,除人力资源受教育程度不高与企业业绩关系不显著外,其余困难均与中国企业的经营业绩呈显著负相关关系,文章进而对各行业的营商环境进行了评估,结果与全国层面分析一致。应重新评估中国营商环境,加强中国的金融基础设施建设力度,优化中小企业信贷政策环境,切实减轻企业的税负压力。     

The 2010 FIFA World Cup and South Africa: A study of longer-term effects and moderators of country reputation

Word-of-mouth (WOM) communication has long been an important source of information influencing consumer attitudes and purchase behaviour. Despite this, relatively little attention has been directed at important questions regarding how WOM is measured. This paper focuses on two measurement issues: who to measure (the giver or receiver) and when to measure (immediately after the message is received or over time). Based on information processing and related theories, three hypotheses were developed and tested. Using a survey approach, respondents' WOM communications were matched to a receiver and the evaluation of the communication was assessed for both groups. It was found that the giver and receiver of a WOM communication did not evaluate the message in the same way, even at the time of transmission. In addition, the evaluation by the receiver was unstable over time. As time passed the evaluation regressed towards the scale mean. Implications for research and management practice are discussed.     

CPU超频不可取

章从电脑系统的观点，阐述了CPU超频不可取的几点重要理由。